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Economist: G7 Cap on Russian Crude Would Deepen Global Energy Crisis, Force US & EU Into Recession_我的网站

A |     Analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co. warned clients this week that global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 per barrel if Russia decides to slash its crude output in response to the multiple layers of penalties imposed by the US and the EU.,Natasha Kaneva and other JP Morgan analysts highlighted that Russia’s economy could withstand Moscow cutting crude oil production by some 5 million barrels without disrupting its economy.,“The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the market analysts wrote, as reported by Bloomberg.,Due to much of the world depending on Russia for oil, even cutting production by 3 million barrels could force benchmark London crude prices to swell to $190 per barrel.,“It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West,” the memo floated. “The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”,Biden Blames 'Putin's Tax' for Rising Food, Gas Prices in US During Speech on Record Inflation10 June, 18:22 GMT,As G7 leaders moved to ban imports of Russian gold in support of Ukraine this week, many experts have begun to weigh in on the practicality, likelihood, and effectiveness of establishing fossil fuel price caps.,Dr. Mamdouh G Salameh, an international oil economist and visiting professor of energy economics at ESCP Europe Business School, has argued that Biden and other Western leaders have “lost all sense of direction” and are on a path to economic despair by continuing to exacerbate the global oil crisis.,“They are letting their enmity cloud their judgment,” Salameh told Sputnik.,"Every time Western nations talk about banning Russian oil or capping it, oil prices surge further forcing Western customers to pay steeper energy bills while [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin laughs all [the] way to the bank," he added.,Rather than playing by other nations’ so-called rules, Russia could simply nix its exports of crude oil and petroleum products to Western nations and maintain oil sales to China and India, “both of which account for more than 50% of Russia’s crude exports,” according to the economist.,“This will certainly push Brent crude oil prices beyond $140 a barrel, deepen the global energy crisis facing the world and plunge Western economies into damaging recession,” Salameh emphasized.,“Western nations don’t seem to realize how quintessential Russia’s oil exports are to the global oil market. That is why they have avoided so far banning Russian oil exports and are looking for alternative ways of cutting Russia’s oil revenues.”,US Markets Lost up to 30% This Year Amid Soaring Inflation, Fuel Prices, Sanctions Backlash1 July, 16:59 GMT,“Even without any new Western sanctions and more follies, the single most important problem that is adversely impacting global supplies and prices is the ever-shrinking global spare oil production capacity which is running very low,” Salameh said. “This will keep the market on edge and also send crude oil prices in a steep upward trajectory soon.”,The economist pointed out: “The United States currently imports more than 9.1 mbd of crude oil and this could rise to 9.24 mbd before the end of the year. This means that it is more vulnerable to an oil price shock than other major economies.",For his part, Dr Gal Luft, co-director of the US-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and a senior adviser to the United States Energy Security Council, believes that JP Morgan's forecast is a "hypothetical scenario", and oil will never come to such price level simply because the "world economy will collapse way earlier.","Even at $159 a barrel we will see massive demand destruction and global depression. The G-7 leaders are behaving like a bunch of drunken sailors on the deck of a ship in the midst of a storm. They are so consumed with rage and vindictiveness that they cannot see the situation clearly and act according to their nations’ self interest. The summer months will face G7 leaders with their voters and they will get an earful. There will be protests and perhaps even violent ones. No democratically elected leader can outsmart the rules of economics," Dr Luft pointed out.。    

    Trade File photo: VCG
Months-long American export license delays are costing the US billions in exports and eroding American market share globally, the US-China Business Council (USCBC) said in a flash survey released on Tuesday.
The survey noted that poorly calibrated US export controls weaken American companies in China, ceding market share to foreign competitors while reducing the profits available for research and development (R&D). 
Designed originally to safeguard national security and serve legitimate foreign policy interests, the US export licensing system has become increasingly politicized, gradually turning into a political tool that obstructs normal economic and trade exchanges. The USCBC survey serves as a stark reminder of how such overreach has backfired on American companies.
In recent years, US politicians have clung to the misplaced belief that restricting exports of advanced goods and core technologies would slow the upgrading of China's tech industry and secure America's technological supremacy. Yet, they overestimated their leverage, while grossly underestimating the developmental resilience that China has built over decades of growth.
Today's China is no longer a passive follower or technology importer. Instead, it has grown into a robust innovation powerhouse with complete industrial chains and strong endogenous driving forces in numerous key technological sectors. Rather than stifling China's technological progress, America's escalating containment measures have only forced China to accelerate industrial upgrading and supply chain optimization.
In the meantime, while US politicians have been indulging in the illusion of building a "tech wall" through licensing restrictions, the self-inflicted damage to the US has grown increasingly impossible to ignore. Reuters reported in August 2025 that thousands of license applications by US companies to export goods and technology around the globe, including to China, were in limbo because turmoil at the agency in charge of approving them had left it nearly paralyzed.
The USCBC survey also listed license delays as the most common challenge identified by 95 percent of companies. For items bound for Chinese customers, two-thirds of companies have had licenses pending for at least three months, exceeding the US Commerce Department's statutory requirements to process applications within 90 days, and 31 percent have had licenses pending for one to two years.
As a result, American tech companies can only watch helplessly as orders that once belonged to them flow to suppliers in other countries. These licensing delays not only impose administrative costs far exceeding expectations, but also severely disrupt normal cross‑border commerce. From semiconductor components to high‑end industrial materials, and from aerospace ancillary products to cutting‑edge research instruments, countless routine trade transactions have been artificially severed. The market advantages that US firms took years to forge is being eroded by the very policies meant to protect them.
From a deeper economic perspective, the export licensing system is particularly lethal to America's innovation ecosystem. Usually, companies allocate a significant portion of their revenue to R&D and technological innovation. However, if the products resulting from these investments cannot be sold in a major market, investment returns will be affected, and the incentive for companies to continue investing in innovation will be undermined. As underscored by the USCBC survey, the export licensing regime diminishes America's ability to innovate and undermines US economic security.
In trying to contain China's industrial rise, the US has ended up undermining its own interests, laying bare the fundamental divide between two development paths. On one hand, the US attempts to fragment global industrial chains through administrative intervention, trade barriers and technological "decoupling" to sustain its dominant position. Yet, such obstructive practices only undermine the competitiveness of domestic industries and weaken America's own innovative vitality.
On the other side, China adheres to high-standard opening-up and win-win cooperation. By continuously opening its vast domestic market and providing foreign companies with a stable business environment, China has built a mutually beneficial global industrial collaboration network. China understands that genuine competitiveness comes from sustained independent innovation, sophisticated industrial supporting systems and market vitality. Precisely because China has chosen to expand openness and deepen cooperation, it has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of external containment and constructed a globally integrated supply network.
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